In a move that has surprised many, the NCAA upheld their tough sanctions against the University of Southern California. It was a long appeal process, and the longer it dragged on the more convinced many became that USC would see the original penalties levied against the program reduced. Perhaps the scholarship reduction would be loosened and maybe the Trojans would even be allowed to compete for the inaugural Pac 12 championship. Instead of reducing the penalties the NCAA remained firm and chose to stand by their original punishment.
Let’s review briefly the sanctions that were levied against the Trojans. To begin with, the Trojans were put on probation for four years. Looking back, USC had to vacate 14 wins during the 2004 and 2005 seasons. USC will also likely have their 2004 BCS crown stripped from them in the near future. The Trojans were also given a two-year bowl ban that began last fall. This means the Trojans will not only be ineligible for a bowl berth this fall, but as mentioned above they won’t be eligible to play for the 2012 Pac 10 title regardless of how well they do on the field during the 2011 season.
Little doubt remains about what penalty was the most damaging to the current and future prospects of the program; the loss of 30 scholarships was upheld. For the next three years the Trojans will be limited to signing only 15 scholarship players per season and cannot have more than 75 players on scholarship. This type of penalty, if not handled properly, could have devastating effects on the USC program. The 15 scholarship limit makes it virtually impossible for USC to have 75 players on scholarship by the time the sanction period is over.
It is this penalty that will have to be addressed and dealt with on a daily basis. Can’t play in a bowl game? Okay, not much they can do about that now. Can’t play in the Pac 12 title game? Doesn’t really impact their weekly preparations or how they recruit. Lost 14 games from the 2004 and 2005 season? No biggie, none of the current players were on that team. Lose 30 scholarships? Ouch.
USC’s response was understandable. “We respectfully, but vehemently, disagree with the findings of the NCAA’s infractions Appeals Committee,” USC said in a released statement. “Our position was that the Committee on Infractions abused its discretion and imposed penalties last June that were excessive and inconsistent with established case precedent.”
There is little debate about the severity of the sanctions levied against the USC program. Recovering from the loss of scholarships is going to be extremely difficult for the Trojans. Their success on the field over the last decade has caused the rest of the Pac 12 to raise their game. Programs like Oregon, Stanford, and Washington are on the rise. Arizona has continued to improve under Mike Stoops and Mike Riley continues to win in Corvallis. Traditional rival Notre Dame is also seeing an early resurgence under Brian Kelly.
Getting through this period while staying at the top of the Pac 12 is going to require some masterful coaching (and recruiting) by second year head coach Lane Kiffin.
So how will Kiffin and his staff get through this period? Good question. It remains to be seen how the Trojans will change their recruiting strategy moving forward. Kiffin and his staff have apparently been going about their business with the impression they would be allowed to land more than 15 players in this class. The Trojans already have eight players committed in the Class of 2012. If all those players stick it means USC can only land seven more players in this class.
Their whole strategy on the recruiting trail must now change drastically moving forward. How they are going to build their roster is going to change dramatically. How they are going to run their program and prepare to win football games is going to change dramatically.
It is highly unlikely that in three years the Trojans will be the powerhouse program they have been over the last ten years. They can, however, weather this storm in a way that allows them to continue to be competitive until they are once again allowed to have a full roster of football players. It is going to be very difficult, but it is possible
So what can USC do? Good question.
ENHANCED WALK ON PROGRAM
The Trojan coaches absolutely must put more emphasis on their walk-on program. Getting players to walk on who might normally go to FCS schools or perhaps players that would normally go to places like San Jose State, San Diego State, and other WAC programs is going to be crucial. The evaluation talents of the USC coaching staff is going to be severely tested over the next three years. USC coaches constantly complained during the 2010 season about their inability to go through normal practices. This problem is only going to get worse moving forward. Landing better (and more) walk-on players will not only help them with their depth, it also gives them more special teams options. Doing so would also help them preserve some of their starters and scholarship depth players. Their walk-on program is going to be especially important when it comes to the lines, where USC is very thin at this point. This will also help guard USC against the devastating effects of any injuries that will occur.
STRENGTH AND CONDITIONING IS VITAL
If USC is going to make is through the next few years it will be imperative that their players are in better shape than their opponents. They should take note of how Brian Kelly has so drastically changed the size, shape, and conditioning level of his Notre Dame program. Players will have to take more reps, they will get hit on more, and the options on special teams will be limited which forces more starters and second teamers to play on more special teams. If their players are not in prime shape and condition USC will wear down year after year. Being able to outrun their opponents, out-hustle their opponents, and out-condition their opponents is one way they can counter their lack of depth and physicality.
CHANGES IN PREPARATION
Here is where Lane and Monte Kiffin’s NFL experience should pay dividends for the USC program. The Kiffin’s will likely be forced to incorporate more of their NFL practice styles than would normally be the case. Trojan coaches simply cannot allow their players to bang on each other as much as they would like. Their emphasis in practice will have to change. They will have to counter their inability to hit with more up-tempo and high-octane practices. Repetitions will be key, and a greater emphasis will have to be placed on fundamentals and technique. If they cannot overwhelm opponents with physicality and toughness they will have to make up for it with speed and tempo. They will have to make up for it with precision. Kiffin might want to think about adapting his offensive schemes to meet this new demand. It would be unwise for USC to assume they can simply stop hitting as much without making up for it in some capacity. Doing so will have serious consequences for the program on Saturdays during the fall.
FIGHT THE NFL
This is going to be difficult, but the USC coaches are going to have to work hard to keep as many players as they can in college for four years. In the past when they would lose a player to the NFL the Trojans could simply replace him with an incoming freshman standout. Right now USC is going to have a tougher time doing this thanks to their 15-per year scholarship limit. They will be stuck at 15 scholarships regardless of what personnel losses they suffer. If they lose an extra three or four players to the NFL they just lose that many players on their roster. They cannot replenish the roster with extra freshmen. This is a difficult thing to balance, as they will be stuck between giving players honest advice about their futures but also looking out what is best for the program.
DISCIPLINE
Kiffin and his coaches are going to have to work hard to run a tight ship over the next three years. Keeping players out of trouble off the field and their minds right in the classroom is imperative. They cannot afford to lose players for disciplinary reasons or because of academic issues. If it wasn’t before, it needs to be of the utmost importance for Kiffin and his program. Who knows, perhaps this could be a blessing for the Trojans. I'm sure Pat Haden wants this to be a part of his program regardless of the sanctions. One thing Randy Shannon did at Miami was change the culture of the program. Kiffin will have to do the same thing, or Haden will have to find someone else who can get this job done.
RECRUITING
Dealing with the changes that must happen on the recruiting trail is going to be the most difficult adjustment for the Trojan coaches. What they are going through is unprecedented. There is not really a coach or program they can call and say, “Hey, how did you deal with this?” A lot of this will have to be their own decisions and ideas on how to properly build their roster. Some positions will have to take precedence over others. The Trojans gave scholarships to three special teams players during the last cycle, which is going to sting a bit. It would be unwise to offer scholarships to kickers and long snappers over the next three years. If needs arise at those positions they have to work hard to bring players in as walk-ons. Landing a fullback likely became far less important over the next three years.
USC has several young and talented tight ends on the roster, so that is a position where USC might consider taking a bit of a hiatus when it comes to offering and bringing in players. They have several young and talented running backs, which is a position USC usually likes to have fully stocked. USC cannot go without signing backs, but they will have to be more choosey about who and how many backs they land. The same holds true at wide receiver. Over the last two years USC has landed a number of highly talented wide receivers. Players like Robert Woods, Kyle Prater, Markeith Ambles, De’Von Flourney, George Farmer, and Victor Blackwell give the Trojans enough depth and firepower at the position. They will need to bring in more receivers, but they need to focus more on quality as opposed to quantity. This is going to be true at every position. USC will be unable to land "project" players that will need time to develop. When they sign a player it needs to be someone who can help them out right away.
Matt Barkley will likely be gone after this season, but the Trojans have three young and talented quarterbacks on the roster. They will have to be careful about how many quarterbacks they land over the next three years. Keeping all three players happy is going to be difficult, but the Trojans have to keep them happy because losing a quarterback off the roster puts them in a serious bind at the position.
Offensively the Trojans are in big trouble when it comes to their offensive line. They are low on numbers and relatively thin on talent in the lower classes. It would be wise for USC to focus on offensive line recruiting over the next two seasons in hopes of building enough depth for their line. They also need a boost in talent, as the young talent on the roster looks nothing like the talented units the Trojans put on the field during their dominating run over the last decade. Falling short on the offensive line could have devastating effects on the Trojans program and could be the one area that most determines their ability to win football games over the next three seasons. If their line does not play well it won’t matter how much talent they have at the skill positions.
Defensively the Trojans are going to have some issues. It would be wise for USC to be spotty with their offensive skill positions and focus primarily on the offensive line and the defense. Their secondary is not nearly as talented as it used to be and there does not appear to be much impact talent in the younger classes. Landing impact defensive backs will be crucial for the Trojans. Their evaluations will have to be spot on, as they simply cannot afford to miss at the position. USC did well to land four talented linebackers in last year’s class, so depth won’t be as much of an issue for the Trojans. At the same time, only Lamar Dawson is truly an impact player when it comes to the underclassmen. They can be choosey at linebacker from a depth standpoint, but the players they do land will have to be impact players.
Up front on defense is a huge issue for the Trojans. There is some talent on the line right now, but most of those players will be gone after this year and certainly by the time the 2013 season rolls around. There are some good young players on the roster, but their Class of 2011 has more bust potential than it does star potential. USC will have to land some standout linemen during the next three years. They are on pace to consistently lose the battles in the trenches, which would spell doom for the USC program.
WIN IN 2011
This is going to be the most important season for the USC program. If they go out and lose a bunch this season there is very little reason for top recruits to consider USC, which would result in them immediately losing relevance. There are far too many attractive options for players in California for them to consider a program that is not only on probation but also is losing games. Losing would crush this program and it could take a decade to recover. If they win in 2011 they will be able to sell recruits on their continued ability to go to the next level. Also, players who sign with USC this year and years after will be eligible to play in bowl games and compete for titles before they leave. That strategy will simply not work if the Trojans cannot win in 2011. Opponents of USC have to view this season with the same importance. This is their chance to bury the Trojans, so expect some serious battles on the field when the Trojans are playing in 2011.
